Researchers to tackle ‘climateflation’ impacts on food prices

A new research council funded project aims to better understand the impact of climate change on food prices and identify the steps needed to adapt to climate-related food price shocks in the future

A new consortium of academics, campaigners and analysts⁽¹⁾ have come together to assess the impact that climate related extreme weather had on UK food supplies in recent years, and quantify the possible future impacts as the world warms further⁽²⁾. 

Recent years have seen devastating impacts linked to climate change⁽³⁾ on food production both in the UK and globally.

Farmers here have had to contend with the highest ever UK temperatures in 2022, alongside drought conditions, followed by the wettest 18 months on record.

Together, these events hit the harvest of vital crops such as potatoes, wheat, barley and everyday vegetables like cauliflower and broccoli⁽⁴⁾.

Globally, crops such as cocoa, olives and sugar have all seen record breaking prices, partly attributed to the impacts of extreme weather⁽⁵⁾.

At the same time, food price inflation has hit British citizens hard, with millions experiencing food insecurity and struggling to afford nutritious food to protect their long term health.

Pete Smith, principal investigator on the project and Professor of Soils and Global Change at the University of Aberdeen, said: "We have seen food shortages, caused by climate change-driven extreme weather events.

"These food shortages have driven spikes in food prices around the world. This climate change-induced food price inflation has been termed ‘climateflation’.

"This project examines the links between food prices and climate change, and will propose actions to deal with climateflation now and in the future."

Independent analysis commissioned by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), one of the partners in the project, found that in 2022 and 2023, extreme weather and fossil fuels had added £605 to the average household food shop⁽⁶⁾.

Items such as olive oil, sugar, tomatoes and onions have all seen production hit and prices rise as a result of extreme weather events since 2021.

Anna Taylor, Executive Director at the Food Foundation, said: "This exciting new project will help us understand the link between climate change and food prices and their knock-on effects on the affordability of nutritious food and human health.

"Importantly we’ll also be researching policy measures which can help make citizens more resilient to climate related food price volatility."

The project will seek to assess for the first time the extent of recent climate-induced food price shocks on UK food supplies, prices and production, and use novel methods to quantify the impact that projected climate change may have in the future on access to nutritious foods and therefore human health.

This will inform what policies will be needed across agriculture, public procurement and the wider supply chain to be able to better adapt to these impacts, in order to build resilience and reduce the impacts on food prices in the future.

Rosie Green, Professor of Environment, Food and Health at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: "We already know a lot about the risks climate change poses for human health but food is often a neglected piece of the puzzle.

"Without a reliable and affordable supply of healthy food the UK’s health will worsen, adding to the burden on the NHS.

"This project will help to make visible the links between climate change, food prices and our health so that we can help the UK’s food system to adapt."

The project will run for two-and-a-half years, and will seek to communicate the findings of the research during this time to ensure policy makers have the information they need to act as soon as they can.

NOTES TO EDITORS

⁽¹⁾The consortium includes: University of Aberdeen, University of Sheffield, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit and The Food Foundation

⁽²⁾ This work is supported by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Building a Green Future strategic theme [Project number 49522] as part of the Maximising UK Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) programme co-designed UKRI, Defra, the Met Office and the UK Government’s Climate Change Committee.

⁽³⁾ World Weather Attribution (WWA) have conducted a number of attribution to studies in recent years to quantify the impact of climate change on observed extreme weather, including this study focused on the UK and Ireland’s wet winter in 2023/24, https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/autumn-and-winter-storms-over-uk-and-ireland-are-becoming-wetter-due-to-climate-change/

⁽⁴⁾ Confirmed: England has second worst harvest on record with fears mounting for 2025, https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2024/confirmed-england-has-second-worst-harvest-on-record-with-fears-mounting-for-2025

⁽⁵⁾ Climate and food: home and away, https://eciu.net/analysis/reports/2024/climate-and-food-home-and-away

⁽⁶⁾ Families hit by £605 food bill as extreme weather and energy crisis bites, https://eciu.net/media/press-releases/2023/families-hit-by-605-food-bill-as-extreme-weather-and-energy-crisis-bites

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