The Big Picture

How is COVID-19 affecting how we feed ourselves?

COVID-19 is having a significant impact on the UK food system. To understand what this will mean for citizens, we’ll be monitoring trajectories for these variables:

  • Infection and mortality rates – how will infection and vaccine developments unfold, and will these be mirrored in food system changes?
  • Civil cohesion and food poverty – will we see civil unrest if people struggle to afford food and prices rise?
  • Food prices – how will supply chains be affected; will export bans lead to price rises and shortages; will domestic production increase and will average prices of fruit, vegetables and other staple foods increase as a result?
  • Fruit and vegetable sales

Follow system-wide developments here as we track shifting challenges and demands, and look at how coronavirus-driven change is reflected in the food system.

Return to our homepage to view the COVID-19 Tracker in full.

Executive director of the U.N. World Food Program warns of hunger pandemic

The Executive Director of the UN World Food Program has warned of a potential hunger pandemic in an address to the U.N. Security Council. Observing that ‘what this pandemic has caused is nothing short of a global crisis, the likes of which we have not seen since World War II”, David Beasley said that “as a global crisis, it requires a global response, especially for the tens of millions whose lives will be crushed by the socioeconomic impact of this crisis.”  With many already facing food insecurity as a result of conflict and famine, WFP’s analysis shows that 300,000 could starve to death every single day for the next three months, warning that we could be looking at famine in about three dozen countries.


Professor Chris Whitty warns social distancing may last until the end of the year   

Professor Chris Whitty warned that the UK may have to live with some form of social distancing for the rest of the yearWith trials currently underway for a vaccine, Whitty advised that it is unlikely that approved drugs or vaccines will be available in 2020. As suchProfessor Whitty said it was “wholly unrealistic” to expect life would suddenly return to normal and warned the UK may have to live with some socially disruptive measures for the rest of the year. The latest figures show a further 759 people have died with the virus in UK hospitals, bringing the total number of deaths to 18,100. 

The UK’s inflation rate fell to 1.5% in March, largely driven by falls in the price of clothing and fuel ahead of the coronavirus lockdown 

The UK’s Consumer Price Index shows the UK’s inflation rate fell to 1.5% from 1.7% in February, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Although the data was collected by March 17th before the more stringent lockdown measures were brought in on the 23rd March, the drop has been put down to falls in the price of clothing and fuel as awareness of COVID-19 and anticipation of lockdown grew.  

Sarah Hewin, senior economist at Standard Chartered bank, told the BBC’s Today programme: “Normally low inflation would be welcomed as it means people have effectively more to spend in the shop but these are not normal circumstances. The fall in inflation, in addition to low energy prices, is an indication of the steep recession we will see in the coming months.” The government’s inflation target is 2%. 

Report from UN World Food Programme and others warns 265m people are facing acute risk of malnutrition with Covid-19 ‘potentially catastrophic’

A new report from the Food Security Information Network, the Global Report on Food Crises 2020, warns that the upheaval that has been set in motion by the COVID-19 pandemic may push even more families and communities into deeper distress. The Report from the UN World Food Programme and others warns 135 million people are currently facing acute risk of malnutrition with COVID-19 ‘potentially catastrophic’ for pushing more into this category. The Network joins a host of other high-profile humanitarian organisations in warning that Covid-19 will accelerate high levels of global food insecurity, with coronavirus posing a particular risk for exacerbating issues in low and middle income countries.

FDF publishes letter calling for gov to reject trade restrictions 

Organisations including the Agricultural Industries Confederation and the British Frozen Food Federation have signed a letter urging the government to ensure critical imports and exports of food and drink continue throughout the crisis. 

The letter urges the government to note the role of food and farming in national infrastructure, writing “Now more than ever, it is critical that we keep imports and exports of food and drink flowing. Essential movements of ingredients and raw materials must continue so that we can supply consumers across the UK.” Although to date not many countries have imposed export bans, there is growing concern from humanitarian organisations that export bans will lead to increases in food prices as seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

The Lancet launches CoHere, a post pandemic recovery plan

Beyond the deaths directly caused by COVID-19, the indirect effect of the virus on the health of the population is increasingly causing concern.

An editorial in The Lancet debates whether the cure will prove worse than the disease, exploring the narrative that mistakenly sees a division between health and the economy and concluding that “there should be no trade-off between health and wealth.”

The editorial calls for a post-COVID-19 health recovery programme—CoHERE – noting the need to unify not only the global response to the pandemic, but also a global commitment to mitigate its damaging aftermath and referring to the IFS’s briefing note linking economic recessions to ill health.

Despite the numerous risks posed by COVID-19 to the food system, with the effects on economically vulnerable groups already beginning to be seen and with many more at risk of food insecurity as the economy contracts, it is interesting to see the theme of future food system resilience and ‘building back better’ starting to emerge. A recent editorial by Hubbub, the environmental charity, provides a useful round-up of some of the more optimistic opinions on the potential long-term impact of COVID-19 on the food system.

Suppliers ration stocks of tinned tomatoes after surge in demand

While to date it has been the retailers who have imposed restrictions on the number of items that consumers can buy, an article in the Guardian reports that tinned tomato suppliers are rationing stocks to supermarkets after demand in the UK surged more than 30% – suggesting that pressures are occurring at multiple stages of the food supply chain.

Suppliers and retailers said demand for tomatoes had outstripped that for beans, soup and tinned fish or vegetables, leaving suppliers concerned about stocks running low. A director of Princes Group, which owns the Napolina brand, confirmed it was allocating stock to its clients to ensure it could “fairly and equitably share” what is available and prevent stocks running out before the new season begins in June.

The seasonality of vegetable production is likely a particular concern in this instance, as this year’s summer tomato harvest is still a few months away. Italian tomatoes make up about three-quarters of UK stocks, according to the Grocer trade journal, and are canned between June and September. With Italy seeing lockdown measure extended until May 3rd it is possible that COVID-19 will also affect the seasonal labour force usually involved in tomato harvesting.

RSA and Food Foundation survey shows changes in citizen attitudes to the food system

A YouGov survey commissioned jointly by the RSA’s Food, Farming and Countryside Commission and the Food Foundation has found that COVID-19 and lockdown are impacting on societal attitudes towards food, the environment, and day-to-day life in general.

The poll finds a clear majority (85%) want to see at least some of changes they have experienced continue afterwards, while just 9% want a complete return to life exactly as it was before lockdown.

The survey also identifies other changes in attitudes towards food, family and the environment:

  • 51% say they have noticed cleaner air, and 27% more wildlife, since the lockdown began
  • Social bonds are stronger, with 40% feeling a stronger sense of local community and 39% more in touch with friends and family
  • 42% say the outbreak has made them value food more, and one in ten have shared something like food or shopping with a neighbour for the first time
  • More than 19 million (38%) say they are cooking more from scratch and 17 million are throwing away less food (33%).
  • 6%, or 3 million people, have tried a veg box scheme or ordered food from a local farm for the very first time
  • But although 9% feel fitter and 27% are getting more exercise, more people (36%) say they are getting less exercise than before.

With 30% of calories usually eaten out of the home, the closure of restaurants, pubs, school and workplace canteens in line with social distancing measures is clearly having a profound impact on where and how people prepare their food. Shortages of products such as eggs and flour appear to be linked to a surge in home baking according to The Grocer (with sourdough and banana bread proving particularly popular on social media channels), which also tallies with the current shift towards home cooking evidenced in the survey results.

Similarly, continued pressure on supermarket supplies, in addition to the government suggesting that people should shop as infrequently as possible appear to be encouraging more people to reduce household food waste and to obtain food through different sales channels – such as veg boxes.

With many working in food, health, and sustainability hopeful that these changes will help to guide future food system policy, it remains to be seen whether these changes will persist once lockdown measures lift and meals are once again eaten out of the home.

The World Vegetable Centre expect vegetable production, trade, and consumption to be affected by COVID-19

In a blog for IFPRI, The World Vegetable Centre production warn that despite their importance as part of a nutritious diet, vegetables may be severely affected by COVID-19. With vegetables highly seasonal, with high labour needs, and given the perishability of fresh produce and the associated need for good storage and distribution logistics, COVID-19 poses particular risks for veg. Transport and quarantine restrictions are likely already limiting farmers’ access to agricultural inputs, such as seed, which must be accessible during planting season.

While we are not yet seeing widespread national disruptions in the availability of vegetables, traders’ access to traditional and local markets—where much fruit and vegetable produce in low-income countries is sold – is being limited.